Author: admin
This is fyi, I am gratefull about Germany’s understanding and willingness to direct their resources towards forest conservation. Let Holland turn its focus beyond fossil fuels as well and there is no way any calamity other than the ravages of climate change can damage the core of Europe.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001565
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR OES/ENRC, OES/STC
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV KSCA KGHG BR GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY SEEKS TO EXPAND ITS SUBSTANIAL ASSISTANCE TO BRAZIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND COMBATING DEFORESTATION
REF: A) BRASILIA 1377, B) BRASILIA 1159
¶1. (U) THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY. Germany has long been the leading contributor of financial and technical assistance to Brazil on deforestation and climate change. It is looking to expand its substantial program of technical assistance at the national and state levels with deforestation, and it also plans to increase its financial assistance with over 100 million Euros on climate change and renewable energy projects. END SUMMARY.
LONG THE LEADING CONTRIBUTOR
¶3. (SBU) Germany has long played the leading role in the international effort on conserving the Amazon forest. It was a major contributor to the G-7’s Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rainforest (PPG7), which was created by the Group of 7 in 1992 and is now winding up. According to Dr. Michael Grewe, Counselor for Technical and Financial Assistance of the German Embassy in Brasilia, the German assistance agency KFW as of September 2008 had contributed approximately 360 million Euros on sustainable forestry activities, protection of indigenous reservations, and land use planning and regulation. (REFTEL A) Further, Jen Ochtrop, the German Development Bank’s (KfW) Brazil Director of Programs for the Management of Natural Resources in an October 14 briefing for Embassy Science Officers outlined ambitious plans for future financial assistance. At that same briefing, the Dr. Helmut Eger, the Director of the German Technical Assistance Agency’s (GTZ) Program for the Protection and Sustainable Management of Tropical Forests, described expanding an already impressive technical assistance program.
¶4. (SBU) Germany would still be the leading contributor to Brazil in this area if Norway had not announced in September a one billion dollar pledge to the Amazonas Fund (REFTEL B). Germany is still studying that fund and has not decided whether it will also contribute or not. During the October meeting, Grewe and Ochtrop expressed concerns over the lack of controls and transparency
¶5. (SBU) Germany has established partnerships with the Ministry of the Environment, FUNAI (the Brazilian Indian Aid Agency), the Ministry of Agricultural, and the State of Amazonas. GTZ and KfW efforts focus on reducing deforestation and promoting sustainable development in the states of Amazonas and Acre. While Germany is looking to expand its impressive environmental efforts, it is no longer working with Brazil on projects to combat poverty. Grewe explained that this is because Germany has determined that Brazil, now a middle income country, has sufficient economic resources to carry out such activities on its own.
AMBITIOUS PLANS FOR THE FUTURE
¶6. (SBU) According to Ochtrop (KfW) and Egger (GTZ), Germany’s priority areas for Brazilian cooperation are: forest conservation and sustainable use; renewable energy and energy efficiency; sustainable development of natural resources with a focus on protected areas; demarcation and protection of indigenous lands; and land use planning and regional development. Germany is also working on capacity building with IBAMA (the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources), the Chico Mendes Institute (which manages conservation areas), and the Brazilian Forest Service in the areas of knowledge management and capacity development. The majority of their capacity development work takes place in the State of Amazonas.
¶7. (SBU) Germany is heavily involved in projects with the Amazonas State Environmental Secretariat as well as other state government institutions in the states of Amazonas and Acre. Much of this activity has occurred since July 2008. Germany participates in land management projects such as the formalizing of land titles and ownership records. The Germans are looking for ways to support the introduction of programs for Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), especially in Amazonas State.
CLIMATE CHANGE
¶8. (SBU) KfW has started a new climate protection initiative that originated in the German environmental ministry. The German government has allocated approximately 400 million Euros for international climate change projects, which will come from the auction of emission rights under a carbon trading scheme. Of this total, 120 million Euros have been set aside for the initial round of projects, and 20 million Euros are being designated specifically for use in Brazil. 9. (SBU) Over the last two years the Germany has spent approximately 92 million Euros for climate related project. In regard to clean energy projects, Grewe told Science Officers that Germany plans to spend about 100 million Euros on wind energy in Brazil and 89 million Euros on a hydroelectric project. These will be implemented through the electric utilities Electrosul and Electrobras.
COMMENT
¶10. (SBU) Germany shares many of the USG’s concerns and interests regarding deforestation and climate change in Brazil. Germany has brought substantial financial and technical resources to help address these problems, and it plans to expand these efforts. Coordination of USG efforts with Germany and other contributors could offer opportunities to leverage our limited technical and financial resources in these critical areas.
END COMMENT.
KUBISKE
Second cable
VZCZCXRO6555
PP RUEHHM RUEHPB RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHBR #0028/01 0081355
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081355Z JAN 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3261
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8893
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7077
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 3318
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000028
C O R R E C T E D COPY – PARAGRAPHS RENUMBERED
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR OES/EGC – T.TALLEY AND D.NELSON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG EAID EFIN BR
SUBJECT: WORKING WITH BRAZIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE – AN OPPORTUNITY
REF: (A) BRASILIA 1666 (B) BRASILIA 1159 BRASILIA 00000028 001.4 OF 003
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Lisa Kubiske, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.
Brazil has a central role in the climate change arena, not only because it controls 70% of the Amazon rainforest, but also because it plays a pivotal role in the on-going UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. USG efforts to have India and China assume binding targets under the UNFCCC may hinge on the Government of Brazil (GOB),s position in these talks. For this reason, Mission Brazil suggests that the USG start an active campaign to allay the GOB,s concern about the effect that any eventual agreement will have on its ability to promote economic growth or about the possibility that a post-Kyoto agreement will expose them to potential trade sanctions or other punitive measures. Allaying the GOB,s concerns on this front will make it possible for the GOB to take a more helpful position in these negotiations.
¶2. (C) Now is a propitious time and the USG has the tools to shift the GOB toward a more helpful position in the UNFCCC negotiations. These tools include working with forward leaning state and local governments, facilitating technical assistance in forest management, and creating opportunities for more technology transfer. END SUMMARY.
BRAZIL IS KEY IN THE FIELD OF CLIMATE CHANGE
¶3. (SBU) Brazil has a dual importance in the field of climate change. First, massive deforestation has made Brazil, who has about 70 percent of the Amazon Forest in its territory, the fifth largest carbon emitter since 1950. For this reason, Brazil,s management of its tropical forests will have a marked impact on the climate.
¶4. (SBU) Second, the GOB has honed to an art the ability to block international negotiations when it disagrees with an outcome. Brazil,s potential spoiler role could undermine USG,s efforts to convince China and India (both non-Annex I countries to the UNFCCC) to take on emissions reductions targets. Brazil has strenuously opposed non-Annex I countries assuming reduction targets, citing the &common but differential responsibilities8 clause in the UNFCCC.
WHAT ARE BRAZIL,S PRIMARY INTERESTS?
¶5. (SBU) Growth, growth, growth. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his team have made economic growth the centerpiece of his second term (2006-2010). Lula wants to bring a modicum of economic prosperity to his base: the approximately 20 million people living in the Amazon region and the over 100 million more living in or near poverty in the rest of the country. A heightened emphasis on growth at the expense of environmental concerns was led to the departure in May 2008 of former Environment Minister Marina Silva (considered an inflexible, absolutist on key environmental issues) and her replacement by the more pragmatic Carols Minc. The GOB does not consider climate change an immediate threat to Brazil, and is not willing to sacrifice other priorities to address the problem.
¶6. (SBU) The GOB sees several areas of concern in the negotiations of the post-Kyoto framework. The GOB fears that there will be trade sanctions imposed on those countries that do not meet emissions reduction targets. They are worried that the Europeans would like to use a punitive regime to implement reductions. Moreover, they suspect that Europe (and to a lesser extent the United States) would use such trade sanctions as a non-tariff barrier to undermine Brazil and third world competitors. Since approximately 80 percent of Brazil,s emissions result from deforestation, Brazil would need to have confidence that it could adequately control the rate of clearing before it could agree to binding international targets. The jump in deforestation figures for the 2007/2008 period shows that the government,s grip over the Amazon remains weak (REFTEL A).
¶7. (SBU) The GOB is also concerned by proposals for a sectoral approach. GOB officials believe the sectoral approach could lead to significant constraints on the Brazilian economy. Here again the GOB sees the hidden hand of competitors in the developed world, where the mature industries are looking for ways to impede the rise of new competitors in the developing world. BRASILIA 00000028 002.4 OF 003
¶8. (SBU) Brazil has looked favorably on other aspects of the climate change discussions that either do not threaten or could even boost economic growth. Thus, the GOB presses hard for technology transfer and financial assistance to the developing world. It also has promoted its Amazonas Fund, where international contributors provide Brazil with funding ) but with no strings or oversight ) to help conserve the Amazon Forest (REFTEL B).
THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
¶9. (C) Brazil could take one of three approaches to the ongoing UNFCCC negotiations: – The Spoiler: This is GOB,s current approach, which is to seek to prevent developing countries from assuming binding international obligations. – The Passive Partner: The GOB is willing to have China and India assume binding obligations, but does not use its influence to accomplish this end. – The Active Ally: The GOB works with the USG to establish mechanisms to constrain emissions by developing countries. While it would be ideal to have the GOB working side-by-side with the USG in the international negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement, it is more important that the GOB does not block a deal satisfactory to the USG.
FIRST A REASSURING CAMPAIGN
¶10. (C) A critical element for changing the GOB,s approach to the negotiations is convincing them that the new regime, whether through overall emissions targets or by sectoral means, will not impede the GOB,s drive to expand the economy. The USG and Europeans should launch a campaign in Washington, Brasilia, and in European capitals (to the Brazilians) to convince the GOB of this important point. The USG should also reach out to other stakeholders such as state and local governments, civil society groups, and opinion makers who can help allay the fears of the federal government.
THE TIME IS RIGHT FOR COOPERATION
¶11. (C) With adequate assurances over their prospective economic growth, we are at a propitious time move the GOB to a Passive Partner or even an Active Ally role in these negotiations. Minister Minc has signaled willingness for Brazil to take a more ambitious approach toward climate change. Minc is close to the President,s powerful Chief of Staff, Dilma Rousseff, which could enhance his ability to influence the results of inter-ministerial debate. At the same time, Under Secretary for Political Affairs Everton Vargas (who has the lead within the Ministry of External Relations (MRE) on climate change) is expected to leave in February 2009 to become the Brazilian Ambassador in Germany. Under Secretary Andre Amado is taking over climate change negotiations for the MRE. This change may provide the USG with a greater opportunity to influence the GOB position in the upcoming UNFCCC negotiations. This opportunity is particularly important because the MRE, rather than the Ministry of the Environment (MMA), has retained the dominant role within the GOB on these negotiations.
¶12. (C) Equally important is the divide between the more forward leaning state governors of the Amazon region and the federal government. The governors have been working on climate change and environmental initiatives that are more aggressive than those of the federal government. Their efforts demonstrate a growing sentiment within Brazil that more can be done to combat climate change. These governors could be potential partners with the USG in efforts to influence the GOB’s position.
SUGGESTED ACTION PLAN
¶13. (C) USG and other developed nations have several tools at their disposal to encourage the GOB to adopt a more helpful approach in these negotiations. The USG should help to the GOB to address its economic concerns by providing technology transfers/sharing (such as with energy efficiency, clean energy, or biofuels); and financial assistance. The USG could start by building on existing mechanisms, such as the 2007 biofuels MOU, but the USG should also look for new opportunities to continue and expand these endeavors.
¶14. (C) The USG should simultaneously take action to persuade influential players in Brazil,s elite circles to weigh in for a more constructive approach. These players include state government leaders, national legislators, the business community, Non-Governmental Organizations, opinion leaders, and prominent scientists. This outreach could be accomplished through existing ties (such as those that the Mission has developed with the governors of the nine states in the Amazon region); building relationships between Brazilian legislators, scientists, and business leaders and their US counterparts; promoting and facilitating exchanges between Brazilian and US experts; and increasing contact and communication with opinion leaders and Brazilian NGOs with a focus on the compatibility of US and GOB interests in climate change negotiations.
¶15. (C) The USG should also leverage its technical, scientific, and economic resources to help the GOB tackle its deforestation problem. This could be accomplished by facilitating technical exchanges with the U.S. Forest Service, the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Bureau of Land Management with an aim of helping strengthen Brazil,s ability at the national, state and local levels to manage better its forests in a sustainable manner. The US could also provide financial assistance and scientific and economic analysis to help the GOB better understand current trends in deforestation and the likely impact of any policy changes.
¶16. (C) Finally, the USG should continue to promote state and municipal activities to reduce deforestation. Helping these governments could produce positive results that could be replicated elsewhere in the region. SOBEL
Still more here.
"Inspecteurs die verantwoordelijk zijn voor offshore olieboringen zijn overbelast, onvoldoende opgeleid, werken zonder officiele procedures bij sommige van hun belangrijkste beslissingen en krijgen soms onvoldoende steun van hun leidinggevenden in hun verzet tegen beinvloeding door de olieindustrie"
aldus een artikel in de NYT naar aanleiding van een rapport door de inspectuer generaal van binnelandse zaken.
In een analyse door David Lewis die ik misschien hier zal vertalen worden gecorrigeerde methaan verlies statistiekevn van het amerikaanse EPA bekeken. Sommige bedragen blijken er een factor 8.000 naast te hebben gezeten.
Met unconverntional well completions en workovers bedoelt men Shale Gas of Hydraulic Fracking Gas wells. Dit laat duidelijk zien dat deze bronnen gas lekken, zoals in vele claims van ziek geworden bewoners in de buurt van deze bronnen wordt beweert.
Lees het artikel hier. Dezelfde energie maatschappijen zijn momenteel ook met ‘Fracking’ bezig in Europa.
Wat helemaal de klomp breekt is dat men kennelijk methaan gebruikt zoals men perslucht gebruikt op plaatsen waar geen electriciteit beschikbaar is.
"This industry is using natural gas in areas where there is no
electric grid as a power source, not by burning it, but as a substitute
for compressed air."
Één studie door Nasa krijgt momenteel publiciteit. Deze studie beweert dat een stijgende CO2 concentratie tot productievere planten leidt en daarmee tot een kleinere temperatuurs stijging dan verwacht. Verdubbeling van de CO2 concentratie leidt maar tot 1.64 graden verwarming, niet tot 2 graden, nog binnen de marge. We kunnen dus rustig 2 ppm extra per jaar incasseren de komende eeuwen.
Één studie moeten we negeren, alleen als de meerderheid van de wetenschappers er geen gebreken in kunnen vinden begint het zin te hebben om het denken aan te passen, helaas is die niet hoe de wereld van de media meestal werkt.
Zwakke punten:
1. De studie doet alsof alle CO2 in de biosfeer blijft, dus in het gebied waar planten groeien. Dat is niet het geval, en de laag waarin CO2 voor het broeikas effect zorgt is vele malen groter dan de biosfeer.
2. De prognose is niet 2 graden maar vier graden in 2070
3. Verzuring van de oceanen is het grootste probleem, niet de toename in temperatuur.
4. Compared to previous studies, these results imply that long term negative feedback from CO2‐induced increases in vegetation density could reduce temperature following a stabilization of CO2 concentration. Zijn we all bij een stabilisatie van de CO2 concentratie?
5. Er wordt een factor genegeerd op weg naar 2 graden celcius: Het methaan (lng) dat in onze oceanen ligt opgeslagen.
Maar Nasa concludeert..
"There are lots of other factors in play, of course, but nonetheless the new analysis is very reassuring."
Laat ze in godsnaam oprotten naar Mars.
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GAS FLARING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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¶4. (C) Pickard said the PIB requires an end to gas flaring by 2010. She said the industry won’t be able to do that due to the lack of investment and security. Shell is ahead of the other IOCs and could be ready by 2011. Shell would have to spend $4 billion to do this, but the GON would also have to fund its part and that is a risk. Shell would shut in oil production in fields where it is uneconomic to end gas flaring, and it would let others have the gas for free where it is economic to do so.
¶5. (C) Pickard continued that NNPC General Managing Director Dr. Mohammed Barkindo was interested in doing something on climate change in preparation for the climate change summit in Copenhagen December 6-18. Barkindo was spread pretty thin so Shell will ask him how they can help him prepare for the summit. She added that Shell had recently told the oil producing countries that coal will squeeze out oil as a result of the CO2 footprint issue if the oil producing
countries and IOCs do not do more to address the issue.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
HOPES THAT OIL NATIONALISM CAN BE TEMPERED
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Natuurlijk is er geen reden voor landen om al hun olie te verkopen. Nederland verkoopt ook niet al het gas, omdat het een belangrijke bron is van onze welvaart. Dat heet echter ‘Oil Nationalisme’.
¶8. (C) The Ambassador asked how comfortable Shell was with the new appointment of Dr. Rilwanu Lukman as Minister of Petroleum Resources, and the appointment of Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo as the new NNPC GMD. Pickard sees the nationalism card cooling with the removal of former NNPC GMD Yar’Adua, given that new Minister of Petroleum Lukman is more "pragmatic" and will hold sway over deputy Minister Ajumogobia. (Note: Ajumogobia’s technical assistant told EconOff in a meeting on January 14, 2009 that the State Minister was focusing on Gas, since before the mass cabinet change he was State Minster of Petroleum, with a separate State Minster for Gas.) End Note. She said she was also okay with NNPC chief Barkindo. She has worked with Barkindo several times over the past few decades, especially when they were both working climate change. She said Barkindo led Nigeria’s technical delegation to climate change negotiations that produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto protocol to UNFCCC during while he served on its Bureau at various times. She indicated that although his undergraduate studies were in political science, he obtained his MBA from Southeastern University in Washington DC and did postgraduate work in petroleum economics and management at Oxford University. Although she also said terms like nationalistic and Chavez she however said that she thought he could be steered in the right direction on the petroleum sector.
– – – –
COMMENT
– – – –
Shell had in 2006 een inkomen van 3 miljoen dollar per uur, natuurlijk door de olie winning in Nigeria. Het afromen van die winst heet corruptie, maar men kan zich afvragen of een boer corrupt is als hij een deel van de productie opeist die je op zijn land behaalt. Energie is geld, en dat maakt het soms moeilijk om beweringen over de kosten van energie, corruptie en winst naar waarde te schatten.
¶9. (C) Although Pickard clearly seems frustrated with the way things are going in the maritime security, oil sector legislation, and corruption which affects Shell’s bottom line, it was useful to hear that she has hopes for the new Petroleum Minister and NNPC chief. Septel on the Ambassador’s meeting with new Petroleum Minister Lukman will address many of these same issues.
– COP15 (Kopenhagen) een regelrechte ramp. Europa buitengesloten en onheus bejegend
– Zijn afwezigheid was een verstandige keuze (hij was nog geen president) want (zo is de indruk) hij had zich wel doen gelden.
– De multilaterale aanpak werkt niet, zal ook op de COP 16 (Cancun) niet werken. "Liever niet nog eens die horror film"
– Beter initiatieven van Europa, VS en China op te bouwen, te beginnen tijdens een bijeenkomst in Spanje (dit lijkt niet te zijn gebeurt).
De vraag is waarom Europa zich opzij laat schuiven. Maar zo zijn er meer vragen over de houding van Europa (nu in het kader van de onrust op de financiele markten).
1. (C//NF) Summary: The Ambassador discussed the Conference of Parties (COP) Conference in Copenhagen and Afghanistan with EU Council Permanent President Herman Van Rompuy over coffee December 23 after delivering the congratulatory letter (reftel) from President Obama. Van Rompuy called the Copenhagen Conference a disaster in which Europe was excluded and mistreated. He predicted Mexico COP 16 would be a disaster as well, and added that multilateral conferences would not resolve the climate problem. He proposed coming to an agreement between the EU and the United States during the possible upcoming U.S. – EU Summit in Madrid, and then approaching China to achieve a workable solution. On Afghanistan, Van Rompuy opined that no one in Europe believed in Afghanistan anymore. He said Europe was going along in deference to the United States; there must be results in 2010, or Afghanistan is over for Europe. End Summary.
Coffee with EU President Van Rompuy
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2. (U) As instructed (reftel), I delivered the letter of congratulations from President Obama to new EU Council Permanent President Herman Van Rompuy on December 23. The meeting was arranged by his new Chief of Staff Frans Van Daele. I did not mean to engage in any substantive discussions nor enter into a domain better left to Ambassador Kennard. However, both Van Daele and Van Rompuy are friends of mine, and they invited me to have some coffee for about an hour. Given the holiday period, the EU Building was virtually empty and both men seemed to have time to spare. We first discussed many social pleasantries: moving to new office space, the holidays, and family.
Copenhagen was a disaster for Europe
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3. (C//NF) Van Rompuy raised the recent COP 15 conference in Copenhagen, calling it an "incredible disaster." He was not angry, in the sense that he never seems angry, but he was as animated and as frustrated as I have seen him. He thought that Europe had been "totally excluded" and was "mistreated." He thought the only saving grace was that he was not there. Van Rompuy said, "had I been there, my Presidency would have been over before it began." He said he was criticized for not being present in Copenhagen, and added that he did not need to be there because he does not start in his new position until January 1. He thought it was a wise decision not to attend the conference despite the pressure.
4. (C//NF) I responded by saying that I had no idea what actually happened since I was not there, but offered that from the reports I was seeing, it looked more like a chaotic meeting had occurred rather than any decision to exclude Europe. But Van Rompuy did not give that explanation much credence, responding, "they could certainly have called Europe and told us to come."
5. (C//NF) Van Rompuy did seem to ascribe some blame to Europe. He said, "no one knows who to call: Merkel, Barroso, who knows who." He said he planned to take control of getting Europe on the same page. He mentioned that he had scheduled an informal EU meeting in February to discuss the economy, but he was now going to use the meeting to discuss Copenhagen in addition to the economy. He intends to get the EU lined up.
U.S. and EU Need to Talk Climate at Madrid
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6. (C//NF) Van Rompuy said he has, "given up on Mexico City," with Van Daele calling the planned U.N. COP 16 meeting to be held there November to December 2010 "Nightmare on Elm Street 2," and stating, "who wants to see that horror movie again." Van Rompuy said, "multilateral meetings will not work." He indicated that Europe first had to get on the same page; then Europe had to meet with the U.S.; and finally they (I think he meant Europe and the U.S.) had to meet as well with China. Rather than waiting for a failure at Mexico City, he intends to address Copenhagen issues with the United States at Madrid; he envisioned engaging China thereafter. In his mind, talks with the U.S. would have to focus on Madrid and
Wie waant zich op morele veilige grond? Degene die meer geeft dan hij ontvangt, die offert voor anderen. Dat is in een notedop de waan die zich van de industrie, het bankwezen en de energie maatschappijen heeft meester gemaakt. Als we in de kern aannemen dat het hier om redelijke verstandige mensen gaat die om anderen geven moet er een reden zijn waarom ze zich afsluiten van de reele desastreuze gevolgen van hun acties.
Een studie van de menselijke moraal en het isolationisme waarin empathie zich bij mensen kan bevinden is het meest poignant te maken door het proces van de joden vernietiging in de tweede wereld oorlog te bestuderen. Niet om de een of de ander als Nazi te veroordelen, maar eenvoudigweg om te zien hoe gelukkige, serieuze mensen tot zulke onmenselijke daden kwamen. De reden is dat zij deel uitmaakten van een systeem dat zo ver als zij dat konden overzien niet veel kwalijks van zin had, en dat hen zo ver als zij konden overzien de keus bood: Meewerken en er gebeurt niks, niet meewerken en je verdwijnt. Zo ging het ook in de Gulags.
Net als in de gulags waren de kwalijke einden, namelijk ‘waarom doen we dit in godsnaam’ en ‘ik verdom het om dit te doen’ afgesloten met trots en arrogantie (leiderschap) of directe dreiging met de dood (joden die de andere joden in de ovens schoven). Alleen omdat het resultaat zo verschikkelijk overduidelijk wreed is lijkt deze vergelijking misschien pijnlijk, maar het gaat alleen om de structuur. De mensen tussen de uiteinden, degene in het proces die geen directe misdaden zagen, vonden het wel best. De taak om er iets aan te veranderen was hen te ingewikkeld.
Tegenwoordig is de hele maatschappij een proces. Zijn we ‘goede consumenten’ die zich door de media van de ene trend in de andere laten schuiven. Wie het strenge regime dat de media beheerst niet opvalt, en het voor de hand liggende voordeel hiervan voor de industrie, energie maatschappijen en het bankwezen niet heel toevallig vindt is misschien ten prooi gevallen aan wat vele duitsers in de tweede wereld oorlog overkwam: Blootstelling aan propaganda zonder alternatieve zienswijzen.
De olie is bijna op en de legers van Duitsland en de VS en andere landen weten dat. Ze weten dat we dan grote maatschappelijke problemen krijgen. In de media hoor je daar niets over, maar het kan volgend jaar al zover zijn. Zoals iemand opmerkte :"Men zegt dat stijgende brandstof prijzen de vraag zullen verminderen zodat er geen tekorten zijn, maar dat betekend wel dat veel mensen zonder brandstof komen te zitten". Wie denkt dat je dan iets met spaarlampen aanricht is gewoon nog nooit ‘buiten’ geweest. De temperaturen stijgen met 4 graden in 2070, dat is twee keer teveel. De wereld kan dat niet aan, de grond droogt uit en het verbouwen van voedsel (toch al afhankelijk van olie die er niet meer is) zal lastig zijn. Leven zal lastig zijn. De oceanen zijn leeg gevist (vast eerder dan verwacht) en sommige mensen zeggen dat de verzuring al over 20 jaar het doek voor leven in de oceanen zal doen vallen.
We zitten in het bos bij Auschwitz te wachten tot we de kamers in mogen. We hebben onze schoenen netjes aan elkaar geknoopt want de bewakers vertelden ons dat we ze dan straks sneller terug zullen kunnen vinden.