It sounds ok, a ‘fuel crunch’, a crunchy fuel situation, like potato chips on the couch, but its going to be a disaster. It will happen too. The fossil fuel distribution system has gotten a beating by Putin’s stupid war, and the reoganization is just keeping parts of the West running, albeit with higher fuel prices. However the nr of refinieries for the US is just enough to serve the country at the higher prices. The US is one refinery fire away from disruption, or maybe two.
Fuel prices are not elastic, which is an economic term for ‘if there is less we just make it more expensive and the economy will adjust’. The slight variations we see now mean people drive less, essential services become more expensive. But in countries like France, the US, Canada you can’t live without fuel in a certain range. If prices move up more things stop happening, soceity falls apart. Germans army in the past made analysis that showed only a tiny fuel shortage could cause serious disruption. Fuel delivery strikes in France and the US made places grind to a halt.
Now this is still playing around, most people don’t think about the economy as being based on a fuel supply, like a diver with an oxygen tank. Most people think its a matter of money, but money only makes it possible to get the fuel to where it is used. This is why a slight fuel crunch as we see now expresses itself in higher fuel prices. A serious fuel crunch is something we should have started to avoid from the moment we realized fossil fuels are a danger to life on Earth, or maybe when we realized the reserves where not endless, at any time after ~1912, instead we have had a century of assholes selling oil at all cost to everyone, even driving a hard fight against anyone who was serious about a plan B (Elon Musk but others before him). The economy has never been about creating a safe society, but only about one thing : Cashflow for banks.
I think the discussion to prepare for a real fuel crunch should be public. It is like a war situation if it happens, because wars are won by the armies with the most fuel (ok, advanced chips and morale and brainpower also play a major role). The quest should be to remove any fossil fuel need in essential services first. So replace all ambulances with EVs, secure solar/wind energy for hospitals, fire services, police stations, then schools. Farmers can’t switch to no fuel but should, there’s already an electric revolution going on on farms. However fertilizer which is running short now because of the gas crunch, can not be easily replaced. So imagine the worst case cruch : No fertilizer, no farming, no food and above all no fuel to make what we need to do all the above.
To any future historian the genocidal path our leaders keep us on and the mental monoculture promoted by the economistic media will look totally insane. The banks do not want to disrupt their cashflow and work hard to lock us into obligations that fix our behaviour and prevent us from preparing. If you work a day job at a gas station for example, and you rent a crappy appartment without garden, how are you going to prepare for anything? If you are homeless because banks have stopped building to drive up home prices how are you going to prepare? If you worked hard (complied with economism) to earn the best spot at Lake Como with a view, are you going to destroy that life by being a prepper? Even then you probably can’t afford it.
Still the realization will come, and it seems the strategy of banks to make us realize slowely, make us not care about people that are hurtning, make us give up as soon as it is our turn, all the while not changing the path of society, while of course there are all kinds of cool things you can do to be ‘green’. Bottom line is if you won’t need banks for something (so driving an EV charging it yourself) banks are not jumping for joy to help you.
The formula for preparation is simple : If your community doesn’t need fossil fuels anymore you’re done. You will find it will also not need a lot of money anymore. Better start now, because without fossil fuels or plenty of renewables there will be no production and distribution of goods and services, and so you won’t be able to deal with the problesm you face. Good luck!