The world is deglobalizing. There are several reasons for this, one is that the power is becoming more distributed, with the BRICS and Saudi Arabia and Nigeria and China all trying to cut up a pieces and dominate it. Another is that climate change will lead to tensions which will divide the world. Another is that reducing emissions means less shipping and flying, if not today then soon.
From the US perpective the FED has been raising interest rates to reduce lending and spending. This was in response to a reduced energy supply, less spending means you need less energy to make stuff. This lead to a slump in the stock market. Now people are wondering what will happen as the FED keeps raising interest rates. My guess is the rates will not rise a lot anymore and the economy will grow.
The simple reasoning behind it is that deglobalization means local producers get an advantage. It also means renewable powered producers and those involved in the ‘Roboeconomy’ (renewable powered AI driven) will be recieving the most (private/retail) investment. Even as people may be replaced by AI, many will be employed in the returning manufacturing industry and renewable energy/storage sector. This means economic growth.
Strangely not all that growth will become visible, because some of it does not generate increased cashflow. Renewable energy can be used (as a basic example) to make pizza’s locally without ever being converted to cash. A stamping machine can be solar steam powered and work all day long, not generating any revenue for an energy company.
It is the banks who are fighting to keep the renewable energy economy at bay, to keep installations expensive, to make sure no renewbale energy installation can be realized without significant debt. But they will lose this fight. The economy will rev up on renewables, on new manufacturing, on new ways to locally do stuff using AI, on better recycling of waste, and on the fight for survival of humanity, which will become more of a positive experience as soon as banks stop telling us its no use, its never no use to fight for a better world.
You can find my booklet on the Roboeconomy on Roboeconomy.com