The economists this week has a comical cover suggesting the world will flood and we will face 3 Celsius average warming. That’s an arbitrary number. Later it will be 4 Celsius. Its highly likely to happen but the upside is that we can use more and more of Earth without running into locals objecting : They will be dead.
You can’t expect any sense from an economist and certainly not from a magazine dedicated to them. What you can expect to find is arguments that help economists in their job : Keep banks going. So now that the trend is undeniable the economists will start saying “Yeah, its 1,5 but we can manage 2” and then “Yeah its 2 but we can manage 3” and then, dependend on whethere there still is a society and the economists have not died of heatstroke they will say something else. The economy can not stop being pro fossil because banks can not stop it. I have written about this for almost 15 years now.
We need to understand we are on a journey, a bit like Kepler avoiding the plague like the plague during the plague..He ran around Europe, had kids, had to please masters, calculated how Mars circled the Sun (with help) and avoided several wars. You can expect something like that in the near future. Experts predicted “no orderly transition” to the Roboeconomy (post fossil economic economy).
As a compulsive look into the future person I think I should build a kind of safe place somewhere. This is prepper stuff, but then maybe more enlightened. For a while now I tried to ask the question : Where would you be good for the next 50 years. Perhaps the best place would be in a desert. If you can survive there you’d be fine, it might get wetter or hotter. Humanity needs to think like that. Our car is off the parking brak and slowely rolling into a burning garage. It is really bad and a big part of all the moving stuff on the planet (planes trains automibiles, people, machines) is not willing to stop increasing the problem. The economy can only collapse, all it knows to do is self-reinforce..
The question “3 degrees” should be responded to with an “are you serious?” and the answer is “yes” and the subsequent thought should be “Ok, what do I do now?”.