War is an obsolete concept. Today small arms are spread all over the world, but anyone that wants to revolt against the rule of the major economies can be crushed in an instant. Russia, China, the US, the EU all crushed militant movements around the globe in recent years. The main reason being fossil fuel supply, the global economy (fossil utilization) and sometimes humanitarian considerations. Many countries are being ravaged by external forces (for example Venezuela) and can’t really develop sensibly. Real war however, has not happened for a considerable time.
If it would, and real weapons would be used, this would be a serious problem for the world. The example of India nuking Pakistan and causing a decade of failed harvests is a readily presented example. It will also sound like an opportunity to some, especially nations with nuclear power plants that can have survivors on food grown under artificial light. This is a bit of a Doctor Strangelove scenario. It’s not the world we want to endure.
I have written a long time ago about the need for a ‘global standdown’ to focus on climate action, this is now even more urgent. It has been the defence ministries of many countries that where early to spot the risk of climate change. The illusion of organization and coordination in these institutions however is significant. We think there’s some kind of thought process going on but in fact its a fight of ideas and factions and the result is often a consequence of a need for short term survival.
Stupid arabs around Israel hold their deserts so sacred and don’t want to share, stupid Isreal thinks it needs all the dry arid homeland for itself and murders sons and daughters (and tries to steal Gaza gas). So many stupid fights that yield nothing are going on. Yet at the same time consumers are made to cooperate and focus on their income by creating insane housing markets in banker dominated nations. This means the most enlightened, educated, energetic people are directing their energy on earning fossil credit to pay of a home who’s value is determined by the amount of restraint the cost should apply on these same young people. Its like a noose, the harder you pull the tighter it gets!
All this is born out of shortages, and these are going to grow if we let the economy do its screwed up work of separating people from the producers by the longest possible distance (to sell more fossil fuels). It will be a disaster, many desperatly poor people in nations that no longer get supplied as the currency inflates as the oil supply turns to nations that still want to burn it. The end game of a fossil economy is a polluted wasteland and possibly a world war (escalated from a conventional one because people can’t handle the complexity and are not organize enough). Up to that point a lot of unnecessary suffering.
The solution? A global agreement to new rules. The rule is : capturing carbon and securing the survival and expansion of life becomes the main challenge, and all nations use their power to ensure that challenge is met. The reward is control over the territory. Exactly like ancient land rules (found in the oldest known law texts) : If you don’t work your land you lose it. If it was not yours but you work it you start owning it. If you don’t fight for it against enemies you lose it. Same idea but this time as a planet together for planetary life.
Any nation can contribute, whether it is by making renewable energy sources or planting trees, but the energy and effort should go into meeting the challenge. The strong and powerfull nations can simply stomp on anyone that is ruining the effort. The planet is for those that work for it. Life and surival are for those that care about it.
The effort needs to be run by an organization that can monitor the activity in any region, if a region is empty but there is potential to do good, people may be send there (with resources, technology, a mission). If they are doing bad they may get assistance, if they do well they can become examples and help others out. The key is that energy has to come from renewables, because this makes it so a people don’t get all arrogant and agressive about owning it (like oil companies and oil executives or banks controlling the distribution). A solar panel is clearly not a hand of God or a divine power you can spread over the globe like a benign deity. Its a thing you can make to get electricity from the Sun, and in principle anyone anywhere can do it.
It could be as a side meeting schedule at the next COP26, where defense ministers from many countries convene and agree to no longer fight each other but fight the influences that increase climate change and will kill their citizens the medium to short term. Take the planet back from its parasites. Make progress transparent and share information. It will be a war, but not between budgets and technology but between people that care and those that don’t. We need this now. It should be on the top of any defense ministers agenda. Stop fighting over fossil energy, start fighting for life itself!